Ignorance about a topic is always proportional to the confidence one has in commenting on it. Coincidence? No, it’s not a coincidence at all. Let’s learn its explanation, the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect.

Presentation of the Effect:

Whether it’s about the coronavirus crisis, the issues in Mercosur, or the latest Netflix series, in general, people tend to offer their opinions on any topic we can imagine. With the rise of social media, this issue has grown to unimaginable levels, and we constantly have at our fingertips the well-argued opinions of hundreds of people who seem to have a doctorate in the subject at hand, whatever it may be. Indeed, on social media, we can witness this phenomenon with a brief search. By the way, we often find genuine battles between “online doctors” on a constant basis.

From a certain perspective, not giving an opinion is somewhat like not existing, and even if no one has asked, it seems we almost have the duty to give our opinion on the trending topic. Logically, it’s impossible to be knowledgeable about everything, so half the time it seems people offer opinions almost as a sport or out of obligation. But this “obligation” turns into a curious kind of necessity; there are many people who seem unable to contain themselves, in any and all situations, from the flat earth theory to the effects of the coronavirus, its vaccines, and their outcomes. As we’ll explain, this has a clear explanation in the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect.

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

In psychology, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias by which incompetent individuals overestimate their ability, while highly competent individuals tend to underestimate it in comparison to others. In other words, the more we know about a topic, the more we likely think we know less, and vice versa.

Competent people, in this way, tend to assign difficult tasks to individuals who lack the necessary skills to complete them. This can be observed in many organizations and requires attention. Although it appears paradoxical, and indeed it is, those who manage teams and organizations should carefully review their assignments, because this effect happens far more frequently than logic might suggest.

What is the problem we face? As a result of this bias, competent individuals tend to assign difficult tasks to people who lack the necessary skills to complete them and who also cannot recognize their failure, as they have few skills to recognize their incompetence. The Dunning-Kruger effect is named after psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, who described it in 1999.

Both psychologists conducted a series of four experiments to analyze the competence of a group of people in different areas: grammar, logical reasoning, or humor. Participants had to estimate their level of competence in each of these fields with a set of tests. It was then that they noticed that the more competent a person was in the topic at hand, the less aware they were of it.

Additionally, they concluded that incompetent individuals are not only incapable of recognizing their incompetence, but they also do not recognize the competence of others (although fortunately, as one’s knowledge on a subject increases, they become more aware of their limitations). It functions as a kind of psychological compensation system, which is very dangerous when an organization or company decides to ignore its internal analysis of this issue.

Observing the Effects in Daily Life:

At this point, it seems inevitable to think about the so-called “imposter syndrome,” which is something like the other side of the coin: an extremely common disorder (seven out of ten people have experienced it at least once, according to data), which occurs when a successful person thinks that everything they’ve achieved is actually due to a stroke of luck and not their own ability or intelligence.

From comments in newspapers to long discussions in Twitter threads, passing through job positions and especially visible on social media, we can observe the Dunning-Kruger effect in various facets of our lives. The issue is that the more we know about a topic, the more we understand the complexity behind it, and therefore, we realize that there is still much we don’t know and can learn. However, when our knowledge about a subject is limited, we mistakenly believe we know much more than we actually do.

This is very dangerous, because decision-making by incompetent people who, on the other hand, believe they know more than others, can lead to many mistakes in the workplace or even in decision-making on a broader, societal level. Eventually, and with awareness, the effect can be corrected, so those who lack sufficient knowledge on a topic just need to delve deeper into it. However, like with everything, the first step is to admit it, and if they don’t, the person in charge must realize it and take the appropriate corrective measures.

As Bertrand Russell said: “The problem with mankind is that the stupid are so sure of themselves and the intelligent are full of doubts.”